IndustryGamers.com quoted Michael Pachter as saying, "Nintendo's overall performance was well below our expectations, with software down over 30% and Wii hardware units down almost 50%. Nintendo had warned us that February would be a difficult month due to supply constraints, but we believe that the problem runs deep than that, as sales of staple titles like Wii Fit with Balance Board and Wii Play were well below historical levels. Nintendo's Wii, will not see any exciting exclusives until at least May (Super Mario Galaxy 2) and its software attach rate continues to decline.
Over the last several years, the Wii benefited from being the cheapest console, but it seems that many of its new purchasers are more discriminating about software purchases than in the past, with a consistently declining tie ratio. This is exemplified by Wii Play, which sold barely 50,000 units in February, and Wii Fit, which also came in well below what we had expected. Titles such as these are finally starting to fade, suggesting that the new Wii purchaser is more casual than ever. Unlike the PS3, with multiple high-profile exclusives and the newly-announced Move Controller, and the Xbox 360, with Project Natal, the Wii lacks an important upcoming catalyst."
I believe Michael Pachter's statement is wrong on numerous points. Read my thoughts and see if you agree, HERE!
First Point He Is Wrong On:
When Mr. Pachter said, "...sales of staple titles like Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board...were well below historical levels.", he was right about Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board sales being below historical levels, but what he doesn't/didn't state is probably the main reason Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board had sales below historical levels.
Amazon.com has been out-of-stock of Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board for the last 9 weeks and counting.
It's not just Amazon.com though, sites like WalMart.com, ToysRUs.com, Target.com, and BestBuy.com, are out-of-stock of Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board as well, as of Saturday and yesterday (Sunday, March 14, 2010).
He said the same about Wii Play's sales, saying they, "...were well below historical levels."
Well, Amazon.com, Target.com, WalMart.com, and BestBuy.com are out of stock of Wii Play. ToysRUs.com has a Wii Play bundle in-stock, but the price on the Wii Play Game Pack is $81.97.
When Michael Pachter said, "Titles such as these(Wii Fit Plus and Wii Play) are starting to fade...", I believe it shows Michael Pachter's lack of knowledge of the Wii game market, especially considering he didn't even mention that these games were/are having trouble staying in-stock, just like the Wii system was.
If Michael Pachter is a true analyst, I would think he, or his team, would follow these type of things, but maybe they're too busy drinking coffee? Can I really blame them?
Yes. As much as I love coffee (if that were his excuse), Michael Pachter is a paid analyst and with statements like these from him, I think they show either ignorance or laziness on his part, maybe both.
People can't buy the games, if they can't find the games to buy.
Second Point He Is Wrong On:
When Mr. Pachter said, "Nintendo's Wii, will not see any exciting exclusives until at least May...", I think he was wrong.
Next week, on March 23, 2010, Red Steel 2
will be released for the Wii.Then, on April 20, 2010, Monster Hunter 3
is being released on the Wii.
Today, Monday, March 15, 2010, Rage of the Gladiator will be released on Nintendo's WiiWare release.
Red Steel 2 will be the first Wii FPS game that requires the WM+ accessory to play the game.
Monster Hunter 3 will feature online play, with Wii Speak support, and the demo for Monster Hunter 3 really surprised me.
Rage of the Gladiator looks like a great alternative/addition to Punch-Out!! on the Wii, with a ton of content and replay value, at only a fraction of the cost of Punch-Out!!.
I already have 1000 Wii Points waiting to download Rage of the Gladiator, I already reserved Red Steel 2, and I'm still playing through some of the Monster Hunter 3 demo having a lot of fun with it.
These are just three exclusive Wii games that I'm excited for, that will be released before May.
Again, the only way I think Mr. Pachter could say, "Nintendo's Wii, will not see any exciting exclusives until at least May...", is if he only thinks Nintendo first-party games are exciting, and exclusive Wii games like Red Steel 2, Monster Hunter 3, and Rage of the Gladiator aren't exciting to him.
Again, being that he's an analyst, I think he should look more at the Wii's game market other than first-party games, before making statements like this.
Last Point He Is Wrong On:
Last, but not least, Mr. Pachter said, "Unlike the PS3, with multiple high-profile exclusives and the newly-announced Move Controller
, and the Xbox 360, with Project Natal
, the Wii lacks an important upcoming catalyst."We don't know if Nintendo will show anything new this year at E3, but we do know they'll be showing the Wii Vitality Sensor, which was first shown at last year's E3.
I think Mr. Pachter again is dismissing or ignoring something coming to the Wii, that may very well be "...an important catalyst..." for the system.
I know Michael Pachter is an "analyst", but I don't believe he analyzed much at all before he made the statement at the top.
I think that Michael Pachter should issue a true analysis of the NPD numbers, and stop being a seemingly lazy or ignorant analyst that just made a statement to make one, with little or no facts to back it up.
Mr. Pachter, if you read this, I know you've said you have a great team that you work with at Wedbush Morgan, but I would seriously check to see why the team can't provide you with simple information before you make a statement.
If you would like to issue a reply to me directly, my email is Scott@CoffeeWithGames.com.
Questions:
1) Do you think Michael Pachter was right in his statement, or do you think he ignored/didn't know that the games he specifically mentioned, Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board and Wii Play, were having trouble staying in-stock at stores during the month of February(even into March now)?
2) Do you agree with Mr. Pachter that the Wii won't have any "exciting exclusives until at least May", or are you excited about any Wii game coming out before May?
3) If you were an investor, would you trust Michael Pachter's advice, now knowing he seemingly made an "analysis" that was either outright ignorant or lazy?
You can read more about Rage of the Gladiator by either clicking on its name in the article, or by visiting GhostfireGames.com.
You can see some of the others listed on Amazon.com right here:
The picture used in the image at the top was from a "google" search and then looking through the images tab. The website it came from was, http://otrapartida.com/el-vidente-pachter-vuelve-a-la-carga/7789/.
I don't put a lot of faith in what many analysts say because most of the time they're simply talking out of their backside. Eventually, Mr. Pachter's predictions will come true because he tends to talk more generally than everyone else.
ReplyDelete1. I don't pay as much attention to sales as I should so I can't comment on that one.
2. Is blatantly false though. Just looking at Nintendo's release schedule will tell you there are good games coming out before May.
3. No. Plain and simple I don't trust most of what he says. He's sometimes entertaining to listen to, but not from an informational point of view.
your blog is spot on. this pachter person is always wrong, what he says anyone with access to Google can probably say better, and he's probably paid by Sony or something. ridiculous that these kind of people even have jobs. nice blog.
ReplyDeleteI liked your post. I'm with Malstrom on what Pachter does. A real analysis is worth a whole lot of money. What we get from Pachter are statements that have absolutely no value. He's not analysing anything when making those statements, he's only saying those things to try and influence people, which is why his "predictions" are always so wrong.
ReplyDeleteThe real analyst report is made for the real investors and that's something we do not get to see because it's worth something. Any investor looking at those statements instead of the real analysis is not a real investor, or extremely stupid.
And the fact that so called gaming journalists only copy paste the statements and take it as truth instead of criticysing it goes to show how much they suck at being journalists and are nothing more than popular forum dwellers.
Jonath
Note that he is not charging for this information and it is not any analyst's job to provide their opinion for free.
ReplyDeleteIt is simply thrown at news sites to bolster his image/ego or for some more devious purpose. The worst part is that it gets published.
-Fox
I honestly think your points are a bit of a stretch and just prove he's right. lol
ReplyDeleteI mean yeah the games and hardware are out of stock, but that still makes him right. With no stock there's no sales, and they will make a massive drop is not restocked.
Are they still in demand? Well we don't know because they are out of stock.
And MH3 and RS2 are big games, but maybe everyone but a select few fans have given up on third party games every being successful. He's going back the fact that no "core" third party game has every sold that well, at least on a decent grounds to be comparable to first party software.
I mean I hope those games sell well, but I'm not holding my breath.
And the Vitality sensor? Really? Really... lol We'll probably get a Tetris game or an updated Wii Fit but I honestly don't see that little finger pincher moving hardware.
In the end, even with Wii sales down, Nintendo is still making a but load of money but I think they will have some serious challenges in the second half when the other stupid motion controls for the other system come out.
I actually like Patcher overall. I think overall he presents his opinions as well thought out and is willing to put himself outthere on a limb right ot wrong.
ReplyDeleteIn this case, I think he is somewhere inbetween. Nintendo hardware and sofware are down dramatically in Jan and Feb, at least partially due to a supply problem. But the Wii had been sloping downward through 2009 until December, so a continued decrease is not unlikely.
As far as releases go, why should anyone think Red Steel is going to sell? I am buying it day 1 but even Ubisoft has basically decided to throw it to the wolves with no backing. They have no confidence in Wii sales, and I contine to believe that Monster Hunter cannot live up to the hype it is receiving. I don't see if selling more than a couple million overall.
Other M is another prominant first party title, but it is a June relesae and Metroid has not had stellar results recently, leaving Super Mario Galaxy as the only reliable Wii title in the first half.
On the Hardware front, Nintendo is planning to pimp the Vitality Sensor in May or June. This might sell well, but it is not going to move systems or serve as a catalyst for the Wii. But frankly, I don't see the move doing that either.
So what is Nintendo's plan? I think that they are trying to make 2010 a big year on the software side with SMG2, Other M and Zelda all coming out this year and pushing MH3 this spring as well. I think they are content to have the Move and Natal take up the buzz press this fall and I expect to hear about the new Wii in 2011 for a 2012 release date.
All the talk that they are not close to thinking about another console is crap. I guarantee they are testing prototypes now. What it will be, I don't know, maybe using the DS2 as it's primary controller? That would be cool. Sorry, off topic.
"So what is Nintendo's plan? I think that they are trying to make 2010 a big year on the software side with SMG2, Other M and Zelda all coming out this year and pushing MH3 this spring as well. I think they are content to have the Move and Natal take up the buzz press this fall and I expect to hear about the new Wii in 2011 for a 2012 release date."
ReplyDeleteThe games you mention typically do not sell very large amounts by Nintendo standards and they are not being released pre-Christmas. None of them constitute Nintendo's big release for this year, which has not yet been announced, though they will keep a lot of fans happy. Their big announcement could be related to the vitality sensor or a new DS. It is hard to know how impressive the vitality sensor will be as we haven't seen any games for it yet, and the games are by far the most important thing in hardware success.
There are people laughing at the vitality sensor, but they laughed at motion controls too, which MS and Sony are now following, so keep an open mind. I think there is a fair bit of potential in the concept, though I am saddened by the fact that it will probably be a long time before anyone makes a game for it that is designed to appeal to anything but the broadest of audiences since I am an experienced gamer.
-Fox
@Fox
ReplyDeleteWith due respect, Super Mario Galxy is going to be big, in the 4-5 million sales big for Nintendo. Mario sells. Zelda sells as well, so a Zelda holiday title on Wii would be a big seller, TP sold almost 8 million so far.
MH3 and Other M are fan service, I think both are guaranteed to sell more than 1mil, but as far as being big hits, both are dicey propositions.
I didn't know I was due any respect! :)
ReplyDeleteI agree those games will sell very well by most companies' standards, but they are not in the same league of popular appeal as Wii Sports (which sold millions of consoles just so people could play the game), Wii Fit or even 2D mario, which overtook Mario Galaxy's lifetime sales within a month of its release and looks like it will sell much better in the long term.
These are the games that Nintendo used to save their business and the basis of their recent success and while SMG2, zelda etc. won't hurt their sales, they will not be their *BIG* release for the year. I find it unlikely that SMG2 will outsell SMG1 despite a higher Wii install base, and zelda seems to decrease in popularity for every iteration in the series since Ocarina of Time (where did you get the 8 million figure for Twilight Princess?).
They will not rely on these relatively niche games when they can continue their successful strategy of expanding to a new gaming audience and getting repeat business from Wii Sports/Fit customers. This is why I expect a big announcement at E3, though I accept that it could be a DS2 along with a very broad-appeal game.
-Fox
1) Supply constraints in past years when eased haven't led to much more than a 20% hike in sales so even boosting up Febs sales by 20% would still put it significantly down compared to last year. Its an overall trend of decreasing sales. Its not like the early days when moms where buying up extra consols and selling them in the parking lot to make a profit.
ReplyDelete2)Nintendo doesn't have a really big "system" seller as compared to Final Fantasy or GOW) to June. There will be big sellers but they'll be bought by people who already have consols.
3)There are plenty of investors who trust what he has to say as he actually has a pretty reliable track record and is unaffected by consol ownership bias . If he said things like "PS3 is going to Own the Wii this summer" I'd stop listening.
Great post, coffeewithchess!
ReplyDeleteI agree that Pachter's analysis is wrong. I mean, how can Wii Fit be "starting to fade" when there is CLEAR demand for it? The thing is going for $150 dlls. at EBay!
However, I disagree that Michael Pachter is lazy or ignorant. The guy knows what's up, but for some reason, he's not saying it.
I think he has a not-so-hidden agenda, that's why his statements are so weird and illogical most of the time.
@delawaregamer
ReplyDelete...why should anyone think Red Steel is going to sell? I am buying it day 1 but even Ubisoft has basically decided to throw it to the wolves with no backing. They have no confidence in Wii sales,...
It's statements like this that show why third party games don't sell on Wii. The publishers and developers make a game, put it in a white box and hope it won't sell. They don't put any effort behind getting the word out there and then they wonder why these games don't sell anything. And you see companies like Nintendo putting commercials on TV, getting ads on the web and in magazines and their games sell millions.
It's not always because the game has the word Nintendo in the bottom right corner that the game sells well, but it's a good part of the reason. They care about their products and they get the word out to the people they're trying to reach.
@Tony Miller:
ReplyDeleteOn your first comment, about many good Wii games coming out before May, I didn't even add Trauma Team to the list of games being released before May.
@Anonymous from March 15, 2010 11:15AM:
Thanks for the comment I'm glad you enjoyed the read. One interesting thing, Mr. Pachter actually did think the original Wii Fit would be successful, and was quoted as saying it before the game released.
@Anonymous(Jonath) from March 15, 2010 11:48AM:
It is interesting that Mr. Pachter, I guess, is giving these statements out for free.
I also agree though, that many "journalists" simply copy and paste, with little or no critical thinking involved on most gaming topics.
@Anonymous from March 15, 2010 11:56AM:
"The worst part is that it gets published"
I can't disagree with that.
@Anonymous from March 15, 2010 12:25PM:
"I honestly think your points are a bit of a stretch and just prove he's right."
I agree, I did say Mr. Pachter's statement was right, but his conclusion was wrong.
I said, "...he was right about Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board sales being below historical levels, but what he doesn't/didn't state is probably the main reason Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board had sales below historical levels."
As for RS2 and MH3, I just hope Ubisoft and Capcom advertise the games well.
And on the Vitality Sensor, the main thing I'm curious about, is why we haven't seen anything of it since E3 of last year. Nintendo may have changed a lot on it, but possibly they're polishing up Wii Relax for when it releases.
I think if Wii Vitality Sensor releases with something like Wii Relax, and is a game like Wii Fit, the Wii Vitality Sensor could very well be a system mover.
@delawaregamer:
I don't think Pachter is a bad guy. I just wish he would mention/use other statistics when making a statement like this. I know he was probably asked quickly to make a statement, and didn't look at numbers, other than the NPD data he was commenting on at the time.
As for another console, 2011 would be 5 years after the Wii released, which would be about right looking at the past release history.
@Anonymous(Fox) from March 15, 2010 2:17PM:
"There are people laughing at the vitality sensor, but they laughed at motion controls too...so keep an open mind."
I make fun of the Wii Vitality Sensor, but as I stated above, I do think if Nintendo markets it well, it could be a system seller to a totally new market.
@delawaregamer:
I'm not sure how much RS2 will sell, I don't know if Ubisoft is even planning on advertising it. Ubisoft cut its projection for the game from 1 million, down to 500,000 just a few weeks(or months?) ago.
@Fox:
I really wonder what E3 will show. We know about Zelda, Metroid, and Mario already. We know about the Vitality Sensor, so I wonder if they will have a big surprise.
@Anonymous from March 16, 2010 6:32AM:
1) I know sales decrease normally over time, the reason new products are introduced into the market, but in the case of Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board people are selling that bundle for a good bit of profit on online websites.
2) I think March's NPD numbers are going to be really interesting because of GOW and Final Fantasy both being released.
3) Like I said about, I don't think Pachter is a bad guy, I just questioned his lack of information on this statement.
@Anonymous from March 16, 2010 1:09PM:
"I agree that Pachter's analysis is wrong. I mean, how can Wii Fit be "starting to fade" when there is CLEAR demand for it? The thing is going for $150 dlls. at EBay!"
Exactly one reason why I didn't understand his statement.
@Tony Miller:
I witnessed Nintendo and EA's Wii marketing strategy for the first time over the Christmas holiday, and I was very impressed by what I saw.
Thanks to EVERYBODY for the comments! If anybody ever has any questions or comments about something you don't feel like posting, you can contact me by my email at CoffeewithGames@gmail.com!
ReplyDelete"and zelda seems to decrease in popularity for every iteration in the series since Ocarina of Time (where did you get the 8 million figure for Twilight Princess?)."
ReplyDeleteHe got it from VGchartz, which has Twilight Princess at 5.54 million for the Wii version and 1.56 million for the Gamecube version, and obviously you don't need me to tell you thats 7.10 million total.
I don't know what your basing the word "popularity" off of, but Twilight Princess sold on track with what Nintendo expects of it, except for Japan.